Census Consulting Corporation

U.S. shale producers have been reluctant to invest in raising output after years of weak returns, so U.S. production remains well short of late 2019's record at nearly 13 million barrels per day.

Massive power outages have disrupted daily life for the Mexican states of Baja California Sur and Yucatán. Mexico’s state power company CFE and the respective state governments want to resolve the states' electricity issues and production deficit as soon as possible.

We at Census have been following power deficit issues in Mexico for quite some time. One of our fastest growing projects is focused on securing funding for electricity power generation facilities in Baja California Sur and Yucatán, exploring suitable offtakers in both regions and sourcing commodities like natural gas from reliable suppliers.

Baja California Sur consumes 550MW during peak hours, and the state has installed capacity to produce 739MW. But maintenance issues cause iterations of 200MW between supply and demand, making reliability of production and available capacity a challenge.

In a statement, CFE announced plans for five new combined cycle power plants, two in Baja California Sur and three in Mérida (Yucatán), which also suffers under a power deficit.

At least 985 megawatts (MW) of power are needed to guarantee power supply on the Yucatán peninsula but it is anticipated that output could fall to as low as 732 MW this year. The National Energy Control Center (Cenace) said in a statement recently that in the coming months – it didn’t specify when – there will be a shortage of natural gas on the Yucatán peninsula and power stations in Mérida, Campeche and Valladolid will operate at only 25% capacity. The Mérida III combined-cycle plant will operate at half-capacity during high-demand daylight hours but will disconnect from the grid completely during low-demand periods, the federal agency said (source: Mexiconewsdaily).